Exactly one year ago, China implemented export restrictions on gallium and germanium. The restrictions were based on the grounds of national security. Both technology metals are considered dual-use goods, meaning they can be used for both civilian and military purposes. As a result, export licenses became necessary, which initially took a relatively long time to process, causing exports to fall to zero in August and September. The development caused uncertainty in the international markets, as China is the most important producer of both raw materials, which are required for chips, LEDs, fiber optic cables, and a whole range of other technologies.
Chinese Gallium Exports 2023-2024
Chinese Germanium Exports 2023-2024
The first recovery of exports did not occur until October, and since then, exports of both metals have developed differently. In the case of gallium, there has been a return to the level before the introduction of restrictions. At the same time, the export volume of germanium has continued to fall since April, significantly below the previous year’s level. According to Reuters, there have recently been rumors in the industry that the National Administration of Food and Strategic Reserves wants to buy around 100 tons of germanium. There is no information on the annual production of the metal for 2023, but the US Geological Survey estimates the amount for 2021 to be 140 tons worldwide and 95 tons for China. This means the Chinese state could secure the entire production volume for one year if the rumors were true. However, there is no official confirmation from the Chinese authorities.
Raw materials trader TRADIUM recently published a market commentary on the development of germanium and rhenium. You can find it here.
Photo: iStock/MAGNIFIER